Everton de Vina 0-0 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host U. Catolica at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour U. Catolica — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 4–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
U. Catolica trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus U. Catolica 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 52% | U. Catolica 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.05 xG and U. Catolica 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.900 / defence 0.963 | U. Catolica attack 1.090 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.265. Data: 48 Everton de Vina games / 48 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 43%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | U. Catolica 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.05 / U. Catolica 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.900 / def 0.963 | U. Catolica attack 1.090 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.33
U. Catolica xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kick off?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 U. Catolica.
Where is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica part of?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 30% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
Record (6 meetings): Everton de Vina 3W | Draws 1 | U. Catolica 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. U. Catolica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.90) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
30%
3.38
27%
3.64
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.38
1.33
U. Catolica xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.33 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 11D 17L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica's form line: 21W 13D 14L from 48 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.48 PPG, U. Catolica on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 12W 6D 6L from 24 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.54 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 20W 11D 17L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 21W 13D 14L in their last 48 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or U. Catolica away?
U. Catolica's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.42 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 62%, U. Catolica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Everton de Vina and 67% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Everton de Vina's games and 54% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Everton de Vina's matches and 67% of U. Catolica's.
Do Everton de Vina and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and U. Catolica finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.05 xG and U. Catolica 1.33 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. U. Catolica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against U. Catolica attack 1.09 / defence 0.80, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 43%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 52%, U. Catolica 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
U. Catolica's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.48 PPG, U. Catolica 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.