Everton de Vina 3-2 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nublense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nublense have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nublense away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.20 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Nublense in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Nublense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nublense — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Nublense 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Nublense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Nublense 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.963 / defence 1.023 | Nublense attack 0.908 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.375. Data: 33 Everton de Vina games / 34 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 28% | Nublense 40%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Nublense 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nublense are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nublense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 80% | Nublense 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 28% | Nublense 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.10 / Nublense 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.963 / def 1.023 | Nublense attack 0.908 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Nublense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Nublense xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Nublense kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Everton de Vina 3 - 2 Nublense.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Nublense part of?
Everton de Vina vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 32% chance of winning, Nublense a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 2 | Nublense 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Nublense's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.91x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.61
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.38
1.28
Nublense xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.28 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 22W 21D 17L from 60 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Nublense, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 19L across 60 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.45 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 11W 11D 8L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nublense's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nublense in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Nublense in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Nublense have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Nublense away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Nublense away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Nublense have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Nublense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 40% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 57% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 40% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Nublense tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nublense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Nublense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Nublense 3-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Nublense 1.28 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Nublense attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 32% | Draw 28% | Nublense 40%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG, Nublense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nublense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.