Everton de Vina 1-0 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Deportes Limache at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache encounter.

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Match Analysis

Everton de Vina host Deportes Limache at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Everton de Vina — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Deportes Limache have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Deportes Limache away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deportes Limache are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Deportes Limache and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Jul 2025, ended Everton de Vina 0–0 Deportes Limache — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 69%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 47% versus Deportes Limache 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 47% | Deportes Limache 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.653 / defence 1.232 | Deportes Limache attack 1.152 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.030. Everton de Vina's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Everton de Vina's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Deportes Limache's projected output up. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 35 games and Deportes Limache's last 35.

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.81 | Draw 3.80 | Deportes Limache 2.11. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Deportes Limache are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 50% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Limache 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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