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Poisson rates Deportes Limache at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Deportes Limache encounter.

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Match Analysis

Everton de Vina host Deportes Limache at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Everton de Vina — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estadio Sausalito — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Limache have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Deportes Limache away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deportes Limache are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Deportes Limache and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 47% versus Deportes Limache 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 47% | Deportes Limache 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.02 xG and Deportes Limache 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.653 / defence 1.232 | Deportes Limache attack 1.152 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.030. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Everton de Vina games / 35 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 26% | Draw 26% | Deportes Limache 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Limache 2.13. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Deportes Limache are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 50% | Deportes Limache 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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