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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 13 as Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Coquimbo Unido — 2.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 57% versus Coquimbo Unido 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 48% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.08 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.734 / defence 0.860 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.120 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.123. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Everton de Vina games / 42 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 35% | Draw 29% | Coquimbo Unido 35%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Coquimbo Unido 2.86. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Coquimbo Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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