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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 44%, yet in-form Everton de Vina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 5 as Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 23:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Everton de Vina have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton de Vina 62% and Coquimbo Unido 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Coquimbo Unido 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.13 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.874 / defence 1.063 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.165 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.166. Data: 34 Everton de Vina games / 34 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 40% | Coquimbo Unido 60%.

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