Everton de Vina 1-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Sausalito plays host to Everton de Vina versus Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 10 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Everton de Vina, 1.50 for Colo Colo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Colo Colo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Colo Colo, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
It is worth noting that Colo Colo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 60% versus Colo Colo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Colo Colo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Colo Colo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.936 / defence 0.937 | Colo Colo attack 0.950 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.076. Data: 48 Everton de Vina games / 48 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 27%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Colo Colo 3.70. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 60% | Colo Colo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Everton de Vina 1.35 / Colo Colo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.936 / def 0.937 | Colo Colo attack 0.950 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Colo Colo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo part of?
Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 46% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Everton de Vina and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Record (7 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 2 | Colo Colo 5W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Colo Colo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (0.95x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.62
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.30
0.96
Colo Colo xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.96 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 16W 15D 17L from 48 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 11L across 48 games — 1.94 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 7W 10D 7L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colo Colo's away record stands at 11W 6D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.62 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 16W 15D 17L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 28W 9D 11L in their last 48 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.29 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 0, Colo Colo have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 50%, Colo Colo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Colo Colo in 38%; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 46% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Colo Colo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 19, as Everton de Vina and Colo Colo drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.35 xG and Colo Colo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Colo Colo attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 46% | Draw 28% | Colo Colo 27%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Colo Colo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.