Everton de Vina 3-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Cobresal meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.70 for Cobresal. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton de Vina lead 0W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Cobresal 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Cobresal 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.008 / defence 0.910 | Cobresal attack 0.767 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.368. Data: 41 Everton de Vina games / 41 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Cobresal 4.00. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Everton de Vina 80% | Cobresal 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Everton de Vina 1.45 / Cobresal 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.008 / def 0.910 | Cobresal attack 0.767 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cobresal xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Everton de Vina 3 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 49% chance of winning, Cobresal a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 4 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.77x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.77
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.41
0.96
Cobresal xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.96 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 21D 17L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Cobresal's form line: 28W 14D 18L from 60 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.63 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Cobresal have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobresal away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
6
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Cobresal 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 63% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cobresal in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 60% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Everton de Vina's matches and 63% of Cobresal's.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobresal tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and Cobresal share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina and Cobresal finished level at 3-3 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.45 xG and Cobresal 0.96 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobresal outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Cobresal attack 0.77 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 49% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 25%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Cobresal 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG, Cobresal 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.