Everton de Vina 2-0 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 26 as Everton de Vina welcome Cobreloa to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobreloa stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cobreloa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobreloa away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.40 PPG versus Cobreloa's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Everton de Vina, 0 for Cobreloa and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cobreloa in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 68% versus Cobreloa 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 52% | Cobreloa 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 2.13 xG and Cobreloa 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.913 / defence 0.979 | Cobreloa attack 0.685 / defence 1.580. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.163. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.580 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Everton de Vina games / 25 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 68% | Draw 19% | Cobreloa 12%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Cobreloa 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | Cobreloa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 68% | Draw 19% | Cobreloa 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 2.13 / Cobreloa 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.913 / def 0.979 | Cobreloa attack 0.685 / def 1.580 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cobreloa xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Cobreloa.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa part of?
Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 68% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobreloa?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | Cobreloa 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobreloa in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Cobreloa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.91) and Cobreloa's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cobreloa's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.25
12%
8.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.91
0.78
Cobreloa xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
8.01
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
12%
8.40
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
67.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.78 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 9W 8D 8L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobreloa's form line: 7W 3D 15L from 25 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Cobreloa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Everton de Vina are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobreloa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cobreloa have gone 2W 1D 9L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cobreloa are on 0.92 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Cobreloa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Cobreloa in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Cobreloa have gone 7W 3D 15L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Cobreloa away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.42 PPG; Cobreloa away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
0
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Cobreloa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2024, when Everton de Vina 2-0 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Cobreloa?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cobreloa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 58%, Cobreloa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton de Vina) and 67% (Cobreloa).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cobreloa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Cobreloa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 33% of Cobreloa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Cobreloa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 67% of Cobreloa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Cobreloa tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cobreloa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Cobreloa 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 2.13 xG and Cobreloa 0.78 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Cobreloa attack 0.69 / defence 1.58, drawn from 54/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 68% | Draw 19% | Cobreloa 12%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 52%, Cobreloa 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobreloa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Cobreloa (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.