Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 28 as Deportes Limache welcome D. La Serena to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Limache stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, D. La Serena have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Deportes Limache) versus 1.30 (D. La Serena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Deportes Limache, 1 for D. La Serena and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–4 with D. La Serena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Limache in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
D. La Serena in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Limache 56% and D. La Serena 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 58% | D. La Serena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 2.35 xG and D. La Serena 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.155 / defence 0.989 | D. La Serena attack 0.988 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. D. La Serena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Deportes Limache's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Deportes Limache games / 45 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 64% | Draw 19% | D. La Serena 18%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | D. La Serena 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Limache (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Limache 30% | D. La Serena 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Deportes Limache 1W | Draws 1 | D. La Serena 1W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Deportes Limache 3 – 5 D. La Serena • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Deportes Limache 33% / Draw 33% / D. La Serena 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 64% / draw 19% / away 18% • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.52 (68% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D • Deportes Limache home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • D. La Serena away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Deportes Limache 1.00 PPG vs D. La Serena 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Deportes Limache): Poisson projects 2.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (D. La Serena): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.52 (68% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 62% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 64% | Draw 19% | D. La Serena 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Deportes Limache 2.35 / D. La Serena 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 1.155 / def 0.989 | D. La Serena attack 0.988 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.17
D. La Serena xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena kick off?
Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
Where is Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena part of?
Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 64% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Deportes Limache and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and D. La Serena?
• Record (3 meetings): Deportes Limache 1W | Draws 1 | D. La Serena 1W • Goals trend: 2.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Deportes Limache 3 – 5 D. La Serena • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Deportes Limache 33% / Draw 33% / D. La Serena 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 64% / draw 19% / away 18% • Goals: H2H average 2.67/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.52 (68% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 62% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Deportes Limache and D. La Serena in?
• Deportes Limache (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D • Deportes Limache home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 6 • D. La Serena away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Deportes Limache 1.00 PPG vs D. La Serena 1.30 PPG) • xG vs form (Deportes Limache): Poisson projects 2.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (D. La Serena): Poisson xG of 1.17 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.10 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.52 (68% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 62% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Deportes Limache vs D. La Serena?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture