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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 53%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this Deportes Limache vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza to face Deportes Limache in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Deportes Limache have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Deportes Limache at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Coquimbo Unido (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Coquimbo Unido are 1.40 PPG clear of Deportes Limache in recent Primera División fixtures (2.80 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deportes Limache lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 53% versus Coquimbo Unido 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 50% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.70 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 1.166 / defence 0.814 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.078 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.156. Data: 43 Deportes Limache games / 43 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 53% | Draw 24% | Coquimbo Unido 23%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Coquimbo Unido 4.35. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Limache at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Deportes Limache 10% | Coquimbo Unido 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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