Deportes Iquique 0-4 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Tierra de Campeones to face Deportes Iquique in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Deportes Iquique's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Union Espanola have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.30 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Deportes Iquique 1W, Union Espanola 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Deportes Iquique goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 70% and Union Espanola 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deportes Iquique 77% | Union Espanola 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.64 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.965 / defence 1.341 | Union Espanola attack 0.805 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.067. Data: 34 Deportes Iquique games / 33 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 48% | Draw 27% | Union Espanola 26%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Union Espanola 3.85. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 70% | Union Espanola 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 48% | Draw 27% | Union Espanola 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.64 / Union Espanola 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.965 / def 1.341 | Union Espanola attack 0.805 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Union Espanola xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?
Deportes Iquique 0 - 4 Union Espanola.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 48% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Iquique 1W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 0.96x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.81x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.79
1.15
Union Espanola xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
20.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.15 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Union Espanola's form line: 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.50 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union Espanola have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.77 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Union Espanola away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.13 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won 0-4 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Union Espanola 2-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 73%, Union Espanola 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Deportes Iquique and 47% for Union Espanola. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Deportes Iquique's games and 53% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 47% of Union Espanola's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Espanola run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Deportes Iquique.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Deportes Iquique 0-4 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.64 xG and Union Espanola 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Union Espanola outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Union Espanola attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 48% | Draw 27% | Union Espanola 26%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Union Espanola 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.