Deportes Iquique 1-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Tierra de Campeones plays host to Deportes Iquique versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 15 March 2024 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Cobresal have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Cobresal have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.72 xG and Cobresal 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.175 / defence 1.128 | Cobresal attack 0.894 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.408. Data: 4 Deportes Iquique games / 33 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 45% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 32%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Cobresal 3.12. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 45% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.72 / Cobresal 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.175 / def 1.128 | Cobresal attack 0.894 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Cobresal xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal kicked off at 23:30 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Deportes Iquique 1 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 45% chance of winning, Cobresal a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Cobresal in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Cobresal away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.89x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 4/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.27
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
3.13
1.42
Cobresal xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.42 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Cobresal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Cobresal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Cobresal.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Iquique edge out Cobresal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Cobresal 1-0 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.72 xG and Cobresal 1.42 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.18 / defence 1.13 against Cobresal attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 45% | Draw 23% | Cobresal 32%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.