Deportes Copiapo 0-1 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo host U. Catolica at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Copiapo have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Deportes Copiapo have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
U. Catolica — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Deportes Copiapo) versus 1.50 (U. Catolica). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deportes Copiapo, 1 for U. Catolica and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 53% versus U. Catolica 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 43% | U. Catolica 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.22 xG and U. Catolica 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.153 / defence 0.943 | U. Catolica attack 1.033 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.271. U. Catolica's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Deportes Copiapo games / 39 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 36% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 37%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Copiapo 60% | U. Catolica 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 36% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.22 / U. Catolica 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.153 / def 0.943 | U. Catolica attack 1.033 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
U. Catolica xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Deportes Copiapo 0 - 1 U. Catolica.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 36% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 1 | U. Catolica 1W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (1.15) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.66
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.46
1.24
U. Catolica xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.24 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 10D 12L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, U. Catolica sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Copiapo on 1.13 PPG, U. Catolica on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, U. Catolica have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.60 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: U. Catolica in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or U. Catolica away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.53 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when U. Catolica won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, U. Catolica have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2024, when U. Catolica 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 67%, U. Catolica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Deportes Copiapo and 80% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 60% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Deportes Copiapo's matches and 80% of U. Catolica's.
Do Deportes Copiapo and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Deportes Copiapo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Deportes Copiapo 0-1 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.22 xG and U. Catolica 1.24 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against U. Catolica attack 1.03 / defence 0.76, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 36% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 37%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 43%, U. Catolica 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
U. Catolica's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Copiapo 1.13 PPG, U. Catolica 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. U. Catolica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.