Deportes Copiapo 0-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nublense make the trip to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla to face Deportes Copiapo in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Deportes Copiapo have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla than their overall form suggests.
Nublense's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nublense's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Deportes Copiapo against 1.20 for Nublense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deportes Copiapo lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Nublense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 48% versus Nublense 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 50% | Nublense 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.214 / defence 0.786 | Nublense attack 0.873 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.277. Deportes Copiapo's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Deportes Copiapo games / 48 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 19%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Nublense 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Copiapo (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Copiapo are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Copiapo 40% | Nublense 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.72 / Nublense 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.214 / def 0.786 | Nublense attack 0.873 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Nublense xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense?
Deportes Copiapo 0 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 57% chance of winning, Nublense a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Nublense?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 1 | Nublense 2W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Nublense in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 1.21x the league average against Nublense's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.87x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.22
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.60
0.88
Nublense xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
29.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 0.88 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Deportes Copiapo have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 10D 24L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense's form line: 15W 12D 21L from 48 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Deportes Copiapo against 1.19 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deportes Copiapo have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nublense have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Copiapo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.27 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Nublense in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Nublense have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Nublense away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.65 PPG; Nublense away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nublense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Nublense?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, Nublense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 56%, Nublense 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Deportes Copiapo) and 48% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Nublense in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 61% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Deportes Copiapo's recent games and 48% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Nublense tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Nublense in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nublense defy the odds to beat Deportes Copiapo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Deportes Copiapo 0-1 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.88 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.21 / defence 0.79 against Nublense attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 19%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 50%, Nublense 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nublense's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Copiapo 1.08 PPG, Nublense 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nublense win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Nublense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.