Deportes Copiapo 0-2 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 20 as Deportes Copiapo welcome Huachipato to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Copiapo stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's home record at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla than their overall form suggests.
Huachipato — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Deportes Copiapo) versus 0.90 (Huachipato). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, Huachipato 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Huachipato winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Deportes Copiapo in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Huachipato in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 46% versus Huachipato 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 48% | Huachipato 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.80 xG and Huachipato 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.092 / defence 0.828 | Huachipato attack 0.780 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.217. Data: 49 Deportes Copiapo games / 48 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 23% | Huachipato 16%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Huachipato 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Copiapo (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Copiapo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Copiapo 30% | Huachipato 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 23% | Huachipato 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.80 / Huachipato 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.092 / def 0.828 | Huachipato attack 0.780 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Huachipato xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato?
Deportes Copiapo 0 - 2 Huachipato.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 62% chance of winning, Huachipato a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 1 | Huachipato 2W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Huachipato (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 1.09x the league average against Huachipato's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.43
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.59
0.79
Huachipato xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
3%
38.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 0.79 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 10D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Huachipato sit at 1.56 PPG from 48 outings (21W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Huachipato carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Huachipato have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Huachipato are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Huachipato
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Huachipato have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Huachipato away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.65 PPG; Huachipato away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Huachipato have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, Huachipato have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 0-2 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato?
Huachipato have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 52%, Huachipato 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Deportes Copiapo) and 52% (Huachipato).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Huachipato in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Huachipato?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 61% of Huachipato's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Huachipato usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Deportes Copiapo's recent games and 52% of Huachipato's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Huachipato tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Huachipato in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Huachipato cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Deportes Copiapo 0-2 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.80 xG and Huachipato 0.79 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Huachipato outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Huachipato attack 0.78 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 23% | Huachipato 16%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Huachipato win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 48%, Huachipato 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Huachipato's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Huachipato arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Huachipato (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.