Deportes Copiapo 4-0 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo host Cobreloa at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Deportes Copiapo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deportes Copiapo have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 2.12 xG and Cobreloa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.996 / defence 0.884 | Cobreloa attack 0.844 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.394. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Deportes Copiapo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Deportes Copiapo games / 11 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 20% | Cobreloa 18%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Cobreloa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Deportes Copiapo (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Copiapo are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 20% | Cobreloa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Deportes Copiapo 2.12 / Cobreloa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.996 / def 0.884 | Cobreloa attack 0.844 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cobreloa xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa?
Deportes Copiapo 4 - 0 Cobreloa.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 62% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Deportes Copiapo home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Deportes Copiapo's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cobreloa's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Cobreloa's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.96
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
3.16
1.04
Cobreloa xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
47.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.04 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
1
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Cobreloa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2024, when Cobreloa 4-1 Deportes Copiapo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Deportes Copiapo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Cobreloa 4-0 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 2.12 xG and Cobreloa 1.04 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cobreloa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.00 / defence 0.88 against Cobreloa attack 0.84 / defence 1.40, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 62% | Draw 20% | Cobreloa 18%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.