D. Melipilla 3-1 O'Higgins – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as D. Melipilla take on O'Higgins.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
D. Melipilla host O'Higgins at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 7 June 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. Melipilla 0.83 xG and O'Higgins 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. Melipilla attack 0.914 / defence 1.052 | O'Higgins attack 0.800 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 0.919 / away 0.947. Data: 9 D. Melipilla games / 9 O'Higgins games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 36% | O'Higgins 31%. Fair-value odds: D. Melipilla 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | O'Higgins 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — O'Higgins's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana • Kick-off: Monday 7 Jun 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 36% | O'Higgins 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG D. Melipilla 0.83 / O'Higgins 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: D. Melipilla attack 0.914 / def 1.052 | O'Higgins attack 0.800 / def 0.988 | league avg home 0.919 / away 0.947 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
D. Melipilla xG
Expected Goals
0.80
O'Higgins xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins kick off?
D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins kicked off at 01:30 on Monday 7 June 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What was the final score in D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins?
D. Melipilla 3 - 1 O'Higgins.
Where is D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What competition is D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins part of?
D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins?
Our statistical model gives D. Melipilla a 33% chance of winning, O'Higgins a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both D. Melipilla and O'Higgins will score (BTTS).
Will D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and O'Higgins?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. Melipilla and O'Higgins in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
D. Melipilla's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against O'Higgins's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, O'Higgins's attack versus D. Melipilla's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
36%
2.81
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
D. Melipilla xG
Total xG
1.63
0.80
O'Higgins xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 15.7 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are D. Melipilla and O'Higgins expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for D. Melipilla and 0.80 for O'Higgins, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for D. Melipilla vs O'Higgins?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. Melipilla
Pre-Season
O'Higgins
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between D. Melipilla and O'Higgins runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
D. Melipilla
0
Draws
0
O'Higgins
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and O'Higgins?
From 2 meetings on record, D. Melipilla have won 2, O'Higgins have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did D. Melipilla and O'Higgins last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2021, when O'Higgins 1-2 D. Melipilla.
Who has won more matches between D. Melipilla and O'Higgins?
D. Melipilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. Melipilla home games / O'Higgins away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
D. Melipilla cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over O'Higgins.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
D. Melipilla beat O'Higgins 3-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. Melipilla 0.83 xG and O'Higgins 0.80 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. D. Melipilla beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. Melipilla attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against O'Higgins attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 36% | O'Higgins 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual D. Melipilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.