D. Melipilla 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de La Pintana plays host to D. Melipilla versus Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. Melipilla 1.12 xG and Antofagasta 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. Melipilla attack 0.896 / defence 0.995 | Antofagasta attack 1.063 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.081. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing D. Melipilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 D. Melipilla games / 6 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 33% | Antofagasta 34%. Fair-value odds: D. Melipilla 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Antofagasta 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antofagasta are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 33% | Antofagasta 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG D. Melipilla 1.12 / Antofagasta 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: D. Melipilla attack 0.896 / def 0.995 | Antofagasta attack 1.063 / def 1.297 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
D. Melipilla xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Antofagasta xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta kick off?
D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What was the final score in D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta?
D. Melipilla 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What competition is D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta part of?
D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives D. Melipilla a 33% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both D. Melipilla and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. Melipilla and Antofagasta in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates D. Melipilla's attack at 0.90x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (1.06x) against D. Melipilla's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
33%
3.02
33%
3.05
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
D. Melipilla xG
Total xG
2.27
1.14
Antofagasta xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are D. Melipilla and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for D. Melipilla and 1.14 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for D. Melipilla vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. Melipilla
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
D. Melipilla
1
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Antofagasta?
From 2 meetings on record, D. Melipilla have won 0, Antofagasta have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did D. Melipilla and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2021, when Antofagasta 1-0 D. Melipilla.
Who has won more matches between D. Melipilla and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. Melipilla home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
D. Melipilla and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Regular Season - 8, as D. Melipilla and Antofagasta drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. Melipilla 1.12 xG and Antofagasta 1.14 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. Melipilla attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Antofagasta attack 1.06 / defence 1.30, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. Melipilla 33% | Draw 33% | Antofagasta 34%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.