D. La Serena 0-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this D. La Serena vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio La Portada de La Serena plays host to D. La Serena versus Antofagasta in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 17 July 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
D. La Serena have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, D. La Serena have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Antofagasta (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antofagasta away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for D. La Serena against 0.70 for Antofagasta. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: D. La Serena 0W, Antofagasta 0W, 3D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
D. La Serena half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Antofagasta half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 53% versus Antofagasta 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 47% | Antofagasta 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.36 xG and Antofagasta 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.911 / defence 1.228 | Antofagasta attack 0.858 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 0.997. Data: 49 D. La Serena games / 49 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 27%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Antofagasta 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, D. La Serena are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on D. La Serena if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: D. La Serena 70% | Antofagasta 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio La Portada de La Serena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG D. La Serena 1.36 / Antofagasta 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.911 / def 1.228 | Antofagasta attack 0.858 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.530 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Antofagasta xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Antofagasta kick off?
D. La Serena vs Antofagasta kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Antofagasta?
D. La Serena 0 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is D. La Serena vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Antofagasta part of?
D. La Serena vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 42% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both D. La Serena and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): D. La Serena 0W | Draws 3 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are D. La Serena and Antofagasta in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Antofagasta (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates D. La Serena's attack at 0.91x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.86x) against D. La Serena's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.28
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.41
1.05
Antofagasta xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
14.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.05 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
D. La Serena come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 17D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antofagasta sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (14W 17D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for D. La Serena against 1.20 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
D. La Serena's home form reads 8W 8D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Antofagasta have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, D. La Serena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
D. La Serena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 0.98 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 14W 17D 18L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Antofagasta away?
D. La Serena's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.28 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, D. La Serena have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
D. La Serena
3
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 0, Antofagasta have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2022, when D. La Serena 0-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Antofagasta?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 56%, Antofagasta 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (D. La Serena) and 32% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: D. La Serena keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; D. La Serena have failed to score in 28% of games; Antofagasta in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 48% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of D. La Serena's recent games and 32% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Antofagasta tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antofagasta defy the odds to beat D. La Serena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat D. La Serena 0-1 at Estadio La Portada de La Serena, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.36 xG and Antofagasta 1.05 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. D. La Serena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Antofagasta attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 42% | Draw 31% | Antofagasta 27%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 47%, Antofagasta 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antofagasta's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — D. La Serena 1.14 PPG, Antofagasta 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Antofagasta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.