Curico Unido 2-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Everton de Vina at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Curico Unido have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Curico Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Curico Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Curico Unido at 1.40 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Curico Unido, 1 for Everton de Vina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 0–4 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Curico Unido in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 55% versus Everton de Vina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Curico Unido 44% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 0.869 / defence 1.157 | Everton de Vina attack 1.016 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.290. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Curico Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Curico Unido games / 41 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Curico Unido 50% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Curico Unido 1.45 / Everton de Vina 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 0.869 / def 1.157 | Everton de Vina attack 1.016 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Curico Unido 2 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Curico Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (0.87) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.71
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.97
1.52
Everton de Vina xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
13.04
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.52 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Curico Unido have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 23D 18L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 19W 24D 19L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Curico Unido on 1.39 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Curico Unido have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 8W 12D 11L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Curico Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Curico Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 21W 23D 18L in their last 62 games (1.39 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Curico Unido's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.65 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Curico Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Curico Unido
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 48%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Curico Unido) and 29% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Curico Unido's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Curico Unido's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Curico Unido 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Curico Unido 2-3 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.45 xG and Everton de Vina 1.52 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Everton de Vina attack 1.02 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 35% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 38%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 44%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Curico Unido 1.39 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Curico Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.