Curico Unido 1-2 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Deportes Copiapo travel to Estadio Bicentenario La Granja to take on Curico Unido. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 February 2023, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Curico Unido stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Curico Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Curico Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.88 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.017 / defence 0.881 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.630 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.166. Data: 34 Curico Unido games / 4 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 67% | Draw 21% | Deportes Copiapo 12%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Deportes Copiapo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Curico Unido (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Feb 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 67% | Draw 21% | Deportes Copiapo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 40% | xG Curico Unido 1.88 / Deportes Copiapo 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.017 / def 0.881 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.630 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Deportes Copiapo xG
40%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:30 on Thursday 16 February 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Curico Unido 1 - 2 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 67% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Curico Unido home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Curico Unido's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.74
12%
8.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.53
0.65
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
8.30
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
2%
54.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.65 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Curico Unido
1
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
From 2 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 0, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Deportes Copiapo 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
Deportes Copiapo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Deportes Copiapo defy the odds to beat Curico Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Curico Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.88 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.65 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Curico Unido fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Deportes Copiapo outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 67% | Draw 21% | Deportes Copiapo 12%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Copiapo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.