Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Universidad de Chile at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Universidad de Chile — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Universidad de Chile are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Coquimbo Unido have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Universidad de Chile have managed just 0 wins.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Coquimbo Unido a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus Universidad de Chile 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 54% | Universidad de Chile 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.19 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.943 / defence 0.886 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.439 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.199. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack strength of 1.439 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Coquimbo Unido games / 52 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 29% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 45%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Universidad de Chile 2.22. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Coquimbo Unido dominate the H2H record, yet Universidad de Chile are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Universidad de Chile 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 29% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.19 / Universidad de Chile 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.943 / def 0.886 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.439 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Universidad de Chile xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 29% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
Record (5 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 3W | Draws 2 | Universidad de Chile 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.94) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.90
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.72
1.53
Universidad de Chile xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
6%
15.68
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.53 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 25W 11D 16L from 52 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 14L across 52 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.65 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 15W 6D 5L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 14W 4D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.56 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Universidad de Chile
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 11D 16L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 24W 14D 14L in their last 52 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.96 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 65%, Universidad de Chile at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Coquimbo Unido and 73% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 65% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 73% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Coquimbo Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.19 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.53 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.44 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 29% | Draw 26% | Universidad de Chile 45%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 54%, Universidad de Chile 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.65 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.