Coquimbo Unido 1-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face Union La Calera.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 23:00 UK time.

Current Form

Coquimbo Unido's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Union La Calera have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Union La Calera away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.40 for Union La Calera. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Coquimbo Unido's last 10 home games and Union La Calera's last 10 away games) — Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union La Calera in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Union La Calera and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2023, ended Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Union La Calera — a Coquimbo Unido win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 62% and Union La Calera 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 53% | Union La Calera 48%). Note also that Union La Calera surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.39 xG and Union La Calera 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.034 / defence 0.967 | Union La Calera attack 0.931 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.346. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 58 games and Union La Calera's last 58.

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 32%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.47 | Draw 3.62 | Union La Calera 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 60% (last 10 home games) | Union La Calera 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights