Coquimbo Unido 2-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 18 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Coquimbo Unido have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Union Espanola and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (47 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (47 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 62% versus Union Espanola 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 55% | Union Espanola 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.53 xG and Union Espanola 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.972 / defence 0.648 | Union Espanola attack 0.972 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.320. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.648 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Coquimbo Unido games / 47 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 5.00. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Union Espanola 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.53 / Union Espanola 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.972 / def 0.648 | Union Espanola attack 0.972 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Union Espanola xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 54% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Record (5 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 2W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.87
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.36
0.83
Union Espanola xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.83 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 47 games, going 25W 9D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.40 PPG from 47 outings (18W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.79 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.55 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 9D 13L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Union Espanola away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.14 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
From 8 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 57%, Union Espanola 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Coquimbo Unido) and 43% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Espanola in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 48% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 43% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.53 xG and Union Espanola 0.83 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Union Espanola outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.97 / defence 0.65 against Union Espanola attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 54% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 20%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 55%, Union Espanola 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (47 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (47 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.79 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.