Coquimbo Unido 2-0 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Monday 3 June 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
U. Catolica have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, U. Catolica have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for U. Catolica and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
U. Catolica half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 63% versus U. Catolica 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 55% | U. Catolica 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.11 xG and U. Catolica 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.106 / defence 0.772 | U. Catolica attack 1.047 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.446. U. Catolica's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Coquimbo Unido games / 44 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 34% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 37%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | U. Catolica 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | U. Catolica 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jun 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 34% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.11 / U. Catolica 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.106 / def 0.772 | U. Catolica attack 1.047 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.17
U. Catolica xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 3 June 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 0 U. Catolica.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 34% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
Record (4 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.11) and U. Catolica's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (1.05x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.51
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.28
1.17
U. Catolica xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.17 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 11D 27L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, U. Catolica sit at 1.45 PPG from 60 outings (24W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.45 for U. Catolica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, U. Catolica have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.48 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or U. Catolica away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.57 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, U. Catolica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 67%, U. Catolica 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Coquimbo Unido and 77% for U. Catolica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 57% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 77% of U. Catolica's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over U. Catolica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat U. Catolica 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.11 xG and U. Catolica 1.17 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.11 / defence 0.77 against U. Catolica attack 1.05 / defence 0.68, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 34% | Draw 29% | U. Catolica 37%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 55%, U. Catolica 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG, U. Catolica 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.