Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 16 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Nublense to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 July 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Nublense — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nublense have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Nublense and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Nublense in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 64% and Nublense 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 56% | Nublense 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.063 / defence 0.689 | Nublense attack 0.933 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.404. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Nublense 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Nublense lead the H2H ledger, but Coquimbo Unido carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Nublense 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.72 / Nublense 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.063 / def 0.689 | Nublense attack 0.933 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Nublense xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 57% chance of winning, Nublense a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
Record (5 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 1 | Nublense 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Nublense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.06x the league average against Nublense's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nublense's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.22
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.63
0.90
Nublense xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.90 for Nublense, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 9D 12L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nublense sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (14W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nublense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Nublense have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Nublense in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Nublense have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Nublense away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.09 PPG; Nublense away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Nublense specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Nublense?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Nublense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 64%, Nublense 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Coquimbo Unido) and 50% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Nublense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 64% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 50% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Nublense tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Nublense in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Nublense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Nublense 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.72 xG and Nublense 0.90 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nublense landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.06 / defence 0.69 against Nublense attack 0.93 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 24% | Nublense 20%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 56%, Nublense 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Nublense's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.