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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025, 22:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season.

Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Everton de Vina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 45% versus Everton de Vina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 43% | Everton de Vina 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.028 / defence 0.768 | Everton de Vina attack 0.931 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.101. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 49 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 17%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Everton de Vina lead the H2H ledger, but Coquimbo Unido carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Everton de Vina 50% BTTS from recent games.

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