Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Limache make the trip to to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 5W 3D 2L at — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Limache (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Deportes Limache are 0.50 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido in recent Primera División fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Deportes Limache — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 54% versus Deportes Limache 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 49% | Deportes Limache 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.64 xG and Deportes Limache 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.039 / defence 0.887 | Deportes Limache attack 1.104 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.202. Data: 55 Coquimbo Unido games / 55 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 48% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 27%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Deportes Limache 3.70. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Coquimbo Unido dominate the H2H record, yet Deportes Limache are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deportes Limache (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Deportes Limache 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 48% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.64 / Deportes Limache 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.039 / def 0.887 | Deportes Limache attack 1.104 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Deportes Limache xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 48% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 3W | Draws 0 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Deportes Limache (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.04) and Deportes Limache's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Limache's attack (1.10x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.08
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.81
1.18
Deportes Limache xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
18.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.18 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 55 games, going 33W 11D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (19W 11D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Deportes Limache — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 18W 6D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.49 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Limache
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 33W 11D 11L in their last 55 games (2.00 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Limache away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.22 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Limache been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Deportes Limache in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
0
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
From 3 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Deportes Limache have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Deportes Limache 2-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 52%, Deportes Limache 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coquimbo Unido) and 70% (Deportes Limache). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 74% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 70% of Deportes Limache's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.