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Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Deportes Limache.

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Analysis

Deportes Limache make the trip to to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 2D 2L at — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Deportes Limache (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportes Limache's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 0.80 PPG lead over Deportes Limache (1.80 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Deportes Limache — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Coquimbo Unido and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 49% versus Deportes Limache 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Deportes Limache 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.89 xG and Deportes Limache 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.939 / defence 0.845 | Deportes Limache attack 1.133 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.198. Deportes Limache bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 22% | Deportes Limache 23%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Deportes Limache 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Deportes Limache 70% BTTS from recent games.

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