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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique encounter.

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Match Analysis

Coquimbo Unido host Deportes Iquique at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 22:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 5W 5D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Iquique stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportes Iquique's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Deportes Iquique 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 3–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Deportes Iquique trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 42% versus Deportes Iquique 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 38% | Deportes Iquique 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Deportes Iquique 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.837 / defence 0.694 | Deportes Iquique attack 0.992 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.035. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 18%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Iquique 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Deportes Iquique 60% BTTS from recent games.

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