Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face Deportes Copiapo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Coquimbo Unido welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 23:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Copiapo — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.30 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Deportes Copiapo and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Coquimbo Unido 0–1 Deportes Copiapo — a Deportes Copiapo win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 69% and Deportes Copiapo 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 58% | Deportes Copiapo 46%). Note also that Deportes Copiapo surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.51 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.092 / defence 1.048 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.684 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.333. Deportes Copiapo's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 56 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 26.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.00 | Draw 3.80 | Deportes Copiapo 4.22. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 70% (last 10 home games) | Deportes Copiapo 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.51 / Deportes Copiapo 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.092 / def 1.048 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.684 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Deportes Copiapo xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo is a Primera División fixture (matchday 27) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 50% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.09x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 56 games and Deportes Copiapo's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.80
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.95 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 12W 5D 9L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 13 home games (8W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 2W 4D 7L from their last 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.04 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs Deportes Copiapo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 games (1.58 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.00 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jul 2024, when Deportes Copiapo won Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
2
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2024: Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 77%, Deportes Copiapo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Coquimbo Unido) and 31% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 38% of Deportes Copiapo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 31% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 77% of Deportes Copiapo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.51 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Copiapo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 50% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 24%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 58%, Deportes Copiapo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.