Coquimbo Unido 3-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 2 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Deportes Copiapo to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Deportes Copiapo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deportes Copiapo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.60 (Deportes Copiapo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Deportes Copiapo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 70% and Deportes Copiapo 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 60% | Deportes Copiapo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.045 / defence 0.978 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.899 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.465. Data: 31 Coquimbo Unido games / 31 Deportes Copiapo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Copiapo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Deportes Copiapo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.32 / Deportes Copiapo 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.045 / def 0.978 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.899 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Deportes Copiapo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 38% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (2 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.04x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Copiapo's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.80
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.61
1.29
Deportes Copiapo xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.29 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 15W 5D 10L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Deportes Copiapo's form line: 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L).
On the road, Deportes Copiapo have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Deportes Copiapo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 15W 5D 10L in their last 30 games (1.67 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.93 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2024, when Deportes Copiapo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Deportes Copiapo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
2
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Deportes Copiapo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 3-0 Coquimbo Unido.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 73%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Coquimbo Unido) and 33% (Deportes Copiapo).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Copiapo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 33% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Copiapo 3-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 2, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.32 xG and Deportes Copiapo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 26% | Deportes Copiapo 36%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 60%, Deportes Copiapo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.