Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 13 July 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season.
Curico Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Curico Unido away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Coquimbo Unido's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Coquimbo Unido register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Curico Unido in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 0W, Curico Unido 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Curico Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Curico Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 58% versus Curico Unido 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 51% | Curico Unido 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.42 xG and Curico Unido 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.114 / defence 0.878 | Curico Unido attack 1.027 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.249. Data: 45 Coquimbo Unido games / 45 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 30%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Curico Unido 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Curico Unido lead the H2H ledger, but Coquimbo Unido carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Curico Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.42 / Curico Unido 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.114 / def 0.878 | Curico Unido attack 1.027 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Curico Unido xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 13 July 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Curico Unido.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 1 | Curico Unido 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Curico Unido's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Curico Unido's attack (1.03x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.79
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.54
1.12
Curico Unido xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.12 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 7D 22L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Curico Unido sit at 1.44 PPG from 45 outings (18W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.44 for Curico Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 10W 4D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Curico Unido have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (6W 10D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.47 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Curico Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 16W 7D 22L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Curico Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.55 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Curico Unido won 3-0 on 28 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Curico Unido have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2023, when Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
Curico Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Coquimbo Unido, 73% for Curico Unido — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Coquimbo Unido) and 50% (Curico Unido).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 73% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 50% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Curico Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Curico Unido 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.42 xG and Curico Unido 1.12 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Curico Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Curico Unido attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 26% | Curico Unido 30%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 51%, Curico Unido 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Curico Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.22 PPG, Curico Unido 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.