Coquimbo Unido 1-1 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido meet at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Curico Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Curico Unido away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Coquimbo Unido, 1.30 for Curico Unido — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 0W, Curico Unido 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Curico Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Curico Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 55% versus Curico Unido 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | Curico Unido 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 0.91 xG and Curico Unido 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.756 / defence 1.168 | Curico Unido attack 0.997 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.095. Coquimbo Unido's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 Coquimbo Unido games / 61 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 45%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Curico Unido 2.22. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Curico Unido as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Curico Unido if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Curico Unido 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Coquimbo Unido 0.91 / Curico Unido 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.756 / def 1.168 | Curico Unido attack 0.997 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Curico Unido xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 1 Curico Unido.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 27% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Curico Unido 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Curico Unido's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Curico Unido's attack (1.00x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 29/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
27%
3.77
29%
3.47
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.19
1.27
Curico Unido xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.27 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 29 games, going 7W 5D 17L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Curico Unido sit at 1.66 PPG from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Curico Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Curico Unido have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (3W 8D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Curico Unido's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Curico Unido in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Curico Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 5D 17L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Curico Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.21 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Curico Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Curico Unido in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Curico Unido won 3-0 on 28 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Curico Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Curico Unido have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 July 2023, when Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido?
Curico Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 57%, Curico Unido 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Coquimbo Unido) and 43% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido have failed to score in 29% of games; Curico Unido in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 71% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 43% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido and Curico Unido finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 0.91 xG and Curico Unido 1.27 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Curico Unido attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 29/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 27% | Draw 29% | Curico Unido 45%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, Curico Unido 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Curico Unido's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Curico Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.