🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.

Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

Cobresal's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.00 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Cobresal and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Cobresal trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 60% and Cobresal 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | Cobresal 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.57 xG and Cobresal 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.917 / defence 0.828 | Cobresal attack 0.888 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.149. Data: 33 Coquimbo Unido games / 33 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 55% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 20%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Cobresal 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Cobresal 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights