Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Cobreloa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cobreloa make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobreloa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.998 / defence 0.905 | Cobreloa attack 0.842 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.196. Cobreloa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Coquimbo Unido games / 6 Cobreloa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 23% | Cobreloa 19%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Cobreloa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 23% | Cobreloa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.79 / Cobreloa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.998 / def 0.905 | Cobreloa attack 0.842 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cobreloa xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 Cobreloa.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 58% chance of winning, Cobreloa a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Coquimbo Unido home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.00x the league average against Cobreloa's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobreloa's attack (0.84x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.34
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.70
0.91
Cobreloa xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
3%
31.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.91 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobreloa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
1
Cobreloa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa?
From 2 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, Cobreloa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobreloa last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2024, when Cobreloa 1-0 Coquimbo Unido.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobreloa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobreloa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobreloa 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.79 xG and Cobreloa 0.91 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Cobreloa attack 0.84 / defence 1.31, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 58% | Draw 23% | Cobreloa 19%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.