Concepción 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Concepción at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Municipal de Collao to take on Concepción. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Concepción stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Concepción, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Municipal de Collao, Concepción have gone 4W 2D 3L this season (9 games, 1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Concepción 1.90 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Concepción, 0 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Concepción winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Concepción in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concepción 32% versus Coquimbo Unido 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concepción 37% | Coquimbo Unido 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concepción 1.43 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concepción attack 0.933 / defence 0.907 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.043 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.321. Data: 19 Concepción games / 47 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concepción 41% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 33%. Fair-value odds: Concepción 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Concepción as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concepción offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Concepción 33% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Municipal de Collao • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concepción 41% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Concepción 1.43 / Coquimbo Unido 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Concepción attack 0.933 / def 0.907 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.043 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Concepción (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Concepción xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Municipal de Collao.
What was the final score in Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido?
Concepción 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Municipal de Collao.
What competition is Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Concepción a 41% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Concepción the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Concepción and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concepción and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (1 meetings): Concepción 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Concepción and Coquimbo Unido in?
Concepción (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Concepción's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Concepción's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concepción Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.88
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Concepción xG
Total xG
2.68
1.25
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Concepción and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Concepción and 1.25 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Concepción come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 2D 10L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Concepción is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Concepción on 1.21 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Concepción's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Concepción are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.53 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concepción
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concepción and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Concepción have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 5D 6L in their last 19 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concepción at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Concepción's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concepción at home: 1.56 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Concepción or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concepción have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concepción
1
Draws
0
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concepción and Coquimbo Unido?
From 2 meetings on record, Concepción have won 1, Coquimbo Unido have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concepción and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Concepción 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Concepción and Coquimbo Unido?
Concepción have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Concepción are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concepción 33%, Coquimbo Unido 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Concepción) and 67% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Concepción keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Concepción have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concepción home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concepción play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Concepción's games and 78% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Concepción's recent games and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concepción and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Concepción have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concepción and Coquimbo Unido finished level at 1-1 at Municipal de Collao, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concepción 1.43 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.25 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concepción attack 0.93 / defence 0.91 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concepción 41% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 33%, with Concepción to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concepción 37%, Coquimbo Unido 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concepción's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concepción 1.21 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.