Colo Colo 0-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colo Colo at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colo Colo and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Colo Colo's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Colo Colo at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Colo Colo's 2.10 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Union Espanola's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Colo Colo, 2 for Union Espanola and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Colo Colo 1–1 Union Espanola — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 50% versus Union Espanola 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 41% | Union Espanola 48%). Note also that Union Espanola surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Colo Colo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 2.52 xG and Union Espanola 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.343 / defence 0.705 | Union Espanola attack 0.759 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.375. Colo Colo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.343 — their 2.52 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Union Espanola's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Colo Colo's projected output up. Union Espanola's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Colo Colo have a tight defence (rating 0.705), which is pulling Union Espanola's projected output down. Data: built from Colo Colo's last 58 games and Union Espanola's last 58.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 76% | Draw 16% | Union Espanola 8%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.32 | Draw 6.34 | Union Espanola 11.79. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (76%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Colo Colo 50% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 76% | Draw 16% | Union Espanola 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Colo Colo 2.52 / Union Espanola 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.343 / def 0.705 | Union Espanola attack 0.759 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Union Espanola xG
48%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Colo Colo 0 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola part of?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 29) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 76% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Colo Colo and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Colo Colo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.34) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.76x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Colo Colo's last 58 games and Union Espanola's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.34
8%
11.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
3.25
0.74
Union Espanola xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
11.79
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
8%
12.37
Win to Nil
36%
2.76
1%
145.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.74 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo come into this having played 58 games, going 32W 18D 8L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.21 PPG from 58 outings (18W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Colo Colo's home form reads 20W 7D 2L across their last 29 home games, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
Colo Colo (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colo Colo
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 32W 18D 8L in their last 58 games (1.97 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union Espanola away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.31 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 8 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won Colo Colo 4-0 Union Espanola on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Colo Colo have won 6, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2025: Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 38%, Union Espanola 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Colo Colo) and 48% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Union Espanola in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 48% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Colo Colo's recent games and 48% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 79% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Colo Colo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Colo Colo 0-2 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.52 xG and Union Espanola 0.74 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Colo Colo fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Union Espanola outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.34 / defence 0.70 against Union Espanola attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 76% | Draw 16% | Union Espanola 8%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 8% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 41%, Union Espanola 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Union Espanola winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Colo Colo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.