Colo Colo 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Colo Colo face Union Espanola.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colo Colo and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Colo Colo's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Colo Colo at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Espanola have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Colo Colo, 3 for Union Espanola and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Colo Colo 3–0 Union Espanola — a Colo Colo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 42% versus Union Espanola 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 42% | Union Espanola 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.990 / defence 0.872 | Union Espanola attack 0.965 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.395. Data: built from Colo Colo's last 45 games and Union Espanola's last 45.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.27 | Draw 3.88 | Union Espanola 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (Colo Colo's last 10 home games and Union Espanola's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Colo Colo 30% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Colo Colo 1.48 / Union Espanola 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.990 / def 0.872 | Union Espanola attack 0.965 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Union Espanola xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola FAQs
What time does Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Colo Colo 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola part of?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola is a Primera División fixture (matchday 16) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 44% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Colo Colo and Union Espanola will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Colo Colo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.99) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.96x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Colo Colo's last 45 games and Union Espanola's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.88
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.65
1.17
Union Espanola xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.17 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 11D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.40 PPG from 45 outings (17W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Colo Colo against 1.40 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Colo Colo's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across their last 20 home games, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 20 away games (4W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.56 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
Colo Colo (Home) vs Union Espanola (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colo Colo
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Form FAQs
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union Espanola away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 8 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won Colo Colo 4-0 Union Espanola on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Colo Colo have won 6, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union Espanola last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2025: Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 40%, Union Espanola 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 40% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Colo Colo have failed to score in 30% of games; Union Espanola in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colo Colo vs Union Espanola Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 45% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 40% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union Espanola matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 65% of Union Espanola's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 1.17 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Union Espanola attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 42%, Union Espanola 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.78 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.