Colo Colo 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Colo Colo and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Espanola have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 42% versus Union Espanola 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 42% | Union Espanola 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.990 / defence 0.872 | Union Espanola attack 0.965 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.395. Data: 45 Colo Colo games / 45 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colo Colo 30% | Union Espanola 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Colo Colo 1.48 / Union Espanola 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.990 / def 0.872 | Union Espanola attack 0.965 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Union Espanola xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Colo Colo 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola part of?
Colo Colo vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 44% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Colo Colo and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Record (7 meetings): Colo Colo 3W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 3W.
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.99) and Union Espanola's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.96x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.88
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.65
1.17
Union Espanola xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.17 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 11D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.40 PPG from 45 outings (17W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Colo Colo against 1.40 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Colo Colo's home form reads 12W 2D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.56 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union Espanola away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.90 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Union Espanola 1-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union Espanola?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 40%, Union Espanola 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 40% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Colo Colo have failed to score in 30% of games; Union Espanola in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 45% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 40% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.48 xG and Union Espanola 1.17 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Union Espanola attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 44% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 30%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 42%, Union Espanola 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.78 PPG, Union Espanola 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.