Colo Colo 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Colo Colo face Coquimbo Unido.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Colo Colo's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coquimbo Unido away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Colo Colo) versus 2.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Colo Colo have won 2, Coquimbo Unido 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended Colo Colo 0–0 Coquimbo Unido — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colo Colo trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 44% versus Coquimbo Unido 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 44% | Coquimbo Unido 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Colo Colo surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Coquimbo Unido have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.63 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.042 / defence 0.879 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.997 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.249. Data: built from Colo Colo's last 48 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 49.
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.00 | Draw 4.07 | Coquimbo Unido 3.93. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Colo Colo's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Colo Colo 40% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 20 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Colo Colo 1.63 / Coquimbo Unido 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.042 / def 0.879 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.997 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 20) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 50% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.04) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Colo Colo's last 48 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.07
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.09 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colo Colo come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 12D 11L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (25W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colo Colo on 1.81 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colo Colo's home form reads 14W 3D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 23 away games (10W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.50 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 65%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Colo Colo (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Colo Colo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.96 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won Colo Colo 4-0 Coquimbo Unido.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Colo Colo
2
Draws
3
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Colo Colo have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Coquimbo Unido 5-2 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 48%, Coquimbo Unido 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Colo Colo) and 56% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Colo Colo have failed to score in 26% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Colo Colo's games and 65% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Colo Colo's recent games and 56% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 61% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.63 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 44%, Coquimbo Unido 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.81 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.