Colo Colo 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's home record at Estadio Monumental David Arellano: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Colo Colo) versus 2.00 (Coquimbo Unido). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Colo Colo, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Colo Colo trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 44% versus Coquimbo Unido 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 44% | Coquimbo Unido 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.63 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.042 / defence 0.879 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.997 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.249. Data: 48 Colo Colo games / 49 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 4.00. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Colo Colo 40% | Coquimbo Unido 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Colo Colo 1.63 / Coquimbo Unido 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.042 / def 0.879 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.997 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 50% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (5 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 2 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.04) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.07
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.09
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.09 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colo Colo come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 12D 11L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (25W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colo Colo on 1.81 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colo Colo's home form reads 14W 3D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.50 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 65%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.96 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 48%, Coquimbo Unido 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Colo Colo) and 56% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Colo Colo have failed to score in 26% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Colo Colo's games and 65% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Colo Colo's recent games and 56% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.63 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.09 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 50% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 25%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 44%, Coquimbo Unido 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colo Colo 1.81 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colo Colo win broke the near-deadlock. Colo Colo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.