Cobresal 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Cobresal — this Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador plays host to Cobresal versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cobresal's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Universidad de Chile (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Universidad de Chile have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Cobresal, who have won 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Universidad de Chile — Universidad de Chile have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2025, ended Cobresal 1–0 Universidad de Chile — a Cobresal win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Cobresal and goals — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Cobresal — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Universidad de Chile 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 63% | Universidad de Chile 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cobresal surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Universidad de Chile have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.02 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.011 / defence 1.302 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.785 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.113. Universidad de Chile bring a tight defence (rating 0.651, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cobresal's projected output down. Universidad de Chile's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Cobresal's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Universidad de Chile's projected output up. Data: built from Cobresal's last 41 games and Universidad de Chile's last 41.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 32% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 38%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.08 | Draw 3.40 | Universidad de Chile 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cobresal 60% (last 10 home games) | Universidad de Chile 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, matchday 12 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 32% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cobresal 1.02 / Universidad de Chile 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.011 / def 1.302 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.785 / def 0.651 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Universidad de Chile xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile FAQs
What time does Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Cobresal 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile is a Primera División fixture (matchday 12) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 32% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cobresal and Universidad de Chile will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Universidad de Chile's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.79x) against Cobresal's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Cobresal's last 41 games and Universidad de Chile's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.40
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.16
1.14
Universidad de Chile xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.14 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cobresal's recent record stands at 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 12L across 60 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Universidad de Chile by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cobresal heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 16W 7D 7L from their last 30 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 16W 5D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cobresal are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.85 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Cobresal (Home) vs Universidad de Chile (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cobresal
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile Form FAQs
What form are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Cobresal's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.83 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
3
Draws
1
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Universidad de Chile?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cobresal have won 6, Universidad de Chile have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Universidad de Chile 2-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Universidad de Chile?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 73%, Universidad de Chile 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Cobresal and 53% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cobresal vs Universidad de Chile Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cobresal and Universidad de Chile matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cobresal's games and 47% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cobresal and Universidad de Chile matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cobresal's matches and 53% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do Cobresal and Universidad de Chile matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Cobresal's recent matches and 67% of Universidad de Chile's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.02 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.14 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.01 / defence 1.30 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.79 / defence 0.65, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 32% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 38%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, Universidad de Chile 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Universidad de Chile arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.