Cobresal 2-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Union La Calera at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cobresal's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio El Cobre this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cobresal 1.70 PPG, Union La Calera 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cobresal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Union La Calera in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Cobresal hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Union La Calera, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cobresal and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Union La Calera 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.82 xG and Union La Calera 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.179 / defence 1.229 | Union La Calera attack 0.855 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.452. Data: 44 Cobresal games / 43 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 45% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 33%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Union La Calera 3.03. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 60% | Union La Calera 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 45% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Cobresal 1.82 / Union La Calera 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.179 / def 1.229 | Union La Calera attack 0.855 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Union La Calera xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Union La Calera kick off?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Cobresal vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Union La Calera part of?
Cobresal vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 45% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Cobresal and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Record (5 meetings): Cobresal 4W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.18) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
45%
2.23
23%
4.42
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.34
1.53
Union La Calera xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.53 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cobresal's recent record stands at 28W 14D 18L from 60 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Union La Calera, meanwhile, have gone 19W 23D 18L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.63 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cobresal have managed 20W 6D 4L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union La Calera's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Union La Calera away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union La Calera won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cobresal
1
Draws
3
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 6, Union La Calera have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Union La Calera 3-1 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Union La Calera?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Union La Calera 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 50% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Union La Calera?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cobresal's games and 60% of Union La Calera's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Union La Calera 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 15, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.82 xG and Union La Calera 1.53 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against Union La Calera attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 45% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 33%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Union La Calera 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.