Cobresal 2-1 Santiago Wanderers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cobresal take on Santiago Wanderers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santiago Wanderers make the trip to Estadio El Cobre to face Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.25 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.953 / defence 1.264 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.825 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 0.923 / away 1.100. Santiago Wanderers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Cobresal games / 2 Santiago Wanderers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 35% | Draw 36% | Santiago Wanderers 30%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Santiago Wanderers 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 35% | Draw 36% | Santiago Wanderers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.25 / Santiago Wanderers 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.953 / def 1.264 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.825 / def 1.416 | league avg home 0.923 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Santiago Wanderers xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers kick off?
Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Santiago Wanderers.
Where is Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers part of?
Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 35% chance of winning, Santiago Wanderers a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 0.95x the league average against Santiago Wanderers's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Santiago Wanderers's attack (0.82x) against Cobresal's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 3/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
36%
2.82
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
Santiago Wanderers xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.15 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Santiago Wanderers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Santiago Wanderers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cobresal
0
Draws
1
Santiago Wanderers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 1, Santiago Wanderers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Santiago Wanderers last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Cobresal.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Santiago Wanderers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Santiago Wanderers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Santiago Wanderers 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.25 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Santiago Wanderers attack 0.82 / defence 1.42, drawn from 3/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 35% | Draw 36% | Santiago Wanderers 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.