Cobresal 0-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cobresal face Palestino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Palestino travel to Estadio El Cobre to take on Cobresal in Primera División (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Cobresal — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cobresal have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Palestino have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cobresal at 1.70 PPG versus Palestino's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Cobresal have won 3, Palestino 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Cobresal 2–1 Palestino — a Cobresal win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Palestino trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Palestino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Palestino 52%). Note also that Palestino surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Cobresal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.07 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.201 / defence 1.255 | Palestino attack 0.839 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.231. Palestino bring a tight defence (rating 0.753, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cobresal's projected output down. Cobresal's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palestino's projected output up. Data: built from Cobresal's last 35 games and Palestino's last 35.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 31% | Draw 28% | Palestino 42%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.25 | Draw 3.62 | Palestino 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Cobresal's last 10 home games and Palestino's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cobresal 60% (last 10 home games) | Palestino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 31% | Draw 28% | Palestino 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Cobresal 1.07 / Palestino 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.201 / def 1.255 | Palestino attack 0.839 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Palestino (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Palestino xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cobresal vs Palestino FAQs
What time does Cobresal vs Palestino kick off?
Cobresal vs Palestino kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Friday 29 March 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Palestino?
Cobresal 0 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Cobresal vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Palestino part of?
Cobresal vs Palestino is a Primera División fixture (matchday 6) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 31% chance of winning, Palestino a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cobresal and Palestino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Cobresal vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.20) and Palestino's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cobresal's last 35 games and Palestino's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
31%
3.25
28%
3.62
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.37
1.30
Palestino xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cobresal vs Palestino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.30 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.63 PPG, Palestino on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.20 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palestino have gone 9W 11D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.52 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
Cobresal (Home) vs Palestino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cobresal
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Cobresal vs Palestino Form FAQs
What form are Cobresal and Palestino in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Palestino have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Palestino away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Palestino away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Palestino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2023, when Cobresal won Palestino 1-5 Cobresal.
Cobresal's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cobresal
0
Draws
5
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Cobresal vs Palestino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Palestino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cobresal have won 5, Palestino have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Palestino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Cobresal 2-0 Palestino.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Palestino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 47% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Palestino in 33%; Palestino in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cobresal vs Palestino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cobresal and Palestino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cobresal's recent matches and 50% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cobresal and Palestino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 47% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Palestino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Cobresal's recent matches and 72% of Palestino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palestino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Cobresal 0-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.07 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cobresal fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.20 / defence 1.25 against Palestino attack 0.84 / defence 0.75, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 31% | Draw 28% | Palestino 42%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palestino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.