Cobresal vs Everton de Vina – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Everton de Vina (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Everton de Vina arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cobresal, 2 for Everton de Vina and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 55% versus Everton de Vina 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 57% | Everton de Vina 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.22 xG and Everton de Vina 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.020 / defence 0.930 | Everton de Vina attack 1.261 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.353. Everton de Vina's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Cobresal games / 51 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 29% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 46%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 2.17. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Cobresal 30% | Everton de Vina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 29% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Cobresal 1.22 / Everton de Vina 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.020 / def 0.930 | Everton de Vina attack 1.261 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Everton de Vina xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 29% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (10 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 6 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.26x) against Cobresal's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
29%
3.40
25%
4.04
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.81
1.59
Everton de Vina xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.59 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 8D 24L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.10 PPG from 51 outings (14W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cobresal against 1.10 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 14W 3D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 19W 8D 24L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.80 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 52%, Everton de Vina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cobresal) and 52% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cobresal's recent matches and 40% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cobresal's recent games and 52% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.