Cobresal 2-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Everton de Vina arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cobresal register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Everton de Vina in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cobresal, 0 for Everton de Vina and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 62% and Everton de Vina 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 66% | Everton de Vina 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.76 xG and Everton de Vina 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.170 / defence 1.234 | Everton de Vina attack 1.341 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.120. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Cobresal games / 55 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 41%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Everton de Vina 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 80% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 37% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Cobresal 1.76 / Everton de Vina 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.170 / def 1.234 | Everton de Vina attack 1.341 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Everton de Vina xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 2 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 37% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (6 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 5 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.34x) against Cobresal's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
37%
2.68
22%
4.57
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.62
1.85
Everton de Vina xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
6%
17.12
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.85 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 17D 18L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.51 PPG from 55 outings (23W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Cobresal against 1.51 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 15W 7D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.56 points per game from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Everton de Vina in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 20W 17D 18L in their last 55 games (1.40 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.93 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Cobresal, 67% for Everton de Vina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Cobresal and 52% for Everton de Vina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cobresal's games and 67% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Cobresal's matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cobresal defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Everton de Vina 2-1 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 27, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.76 xG and Everton de Vina 1.85 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against Everton de Vina attack 1.34 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 37% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 41%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cobresal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 66%, Everton de Vina 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.40 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.