Cobresal 3-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 9 as Cobresal welcome Deportes Limache to Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cobresal — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Cobresal have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.93 xG and Deportes Limache 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.005 / defence 0.979 | Deportes Limache attack 0.965 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 0.914. Deportes Limache bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Cobresal games / 8 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Limache 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG Cobresal 1.93 / Deportes Limache 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.005 / def 0.979 | Deportes Limache attack 0.965 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.513 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Deportes Limache xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Cobresal 3 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador.
What competition is Cobresal vs Deportes Limache part of?
Cobresal vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 62% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cobresal and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Limache in?
Cobresal (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Cobresal home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.00x the league average against Deportes Limache's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.40
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.79
0.86
Deportes Limache xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
44.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.86 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Deportes Limache?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Deportes Limache have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2026, when Deportes Limache won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cobresal's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cobresal
0
Draws
3
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
From 4 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Deportes Limache 3-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Deportes Limache?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Deportes Limache.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Deportes Limache 3-1 at Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.93 xG and Deportes Limache 0.86 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Deportes Limache attack 0.96 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 62% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 16%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.